Prasad 称许多新药和器械无效或弊大于利，ACA 让游说者把未经证实的产品纳入公共支出，使问题恶化。

许多新上市的药物、器械和疗法无效，或危害大于获益。ACA 允许游说者把越来越多未经证实的疗法、策略和产品加到公共账单上，只会加剧这一问题。

原文 (en)

Many novel drugs, devices and procedures debuted don’t work/ have harms exceeding benefits. The ACA has only exacerbated this problem by allowing lobbyists to add more and more unproven remedies, tactics, strategies and products to the public tab.

Prasad 怀疑政府控费会以价值为导向，预计会不加区分，打击变革性与边际产品的研发动力。

我对其以价值为导向几乎没有信心。也就是说，我怀疑政府会削减边际商品和服务的支出并激励创新和有价值的服务。更可能的是做法草率且不加区分，导致变革性产品和边际产品都缺乏研发动力。

原文 (en)

I have little confidence it will be value driven. In other words, I doubt that government will reduce spending on marginal goods and service and incentivize innovation and valuable services. Instead, very likely it will be done haphazardly and indiscriminately resulting in disincentives to make transformative products and marginal products alike.

Prasad 警告控费将依赖分层和任意延迟，使美国消费者获取新疗法时更加受挫。

同样，由于我们无法区分好产品和边际产品，成本控制将依赖分层结构、任意拖延等手段，这很可能进一步加剧美国消费者的不满。

原文 (en)

Again, because we are unable to differentiate good vs marginal products, cost control will rely on tiered structures, arbitrary delays, etc. This will likely result in further frustration from the American consumer.

Prasad认为冒烟型骨髓瘤试验中唯一有意义的终点是总生存期，因为早期治疗在未证明获益时只会增加毒性和成本。

对于冒烟型骨髓瘤，唯一重要的终点是总生存期。毕竟，用权宜性方案治疗癌前状态，从定义上就增加了毒性和成本。肿瘤最终仍会生长，最终仍会致命。

原文 (en)

With smoldering myeloma, the only endpoint that matters is overall survival. After all, if you treat a pre-cancer with a temporizing regimen, you add toxicity and cost, by definition. Your tumor will still eventually grow, and it will still eventually kill you.

Prasad指出像Aquila这样的试验可能通过全球开展并以劣质护理作对照，人为制造总生存获益，而非对照真正的美国标准治疗。

因此唯一合适的研究是将早期治疗与当前标准治疗随机对照并测量生存。但这很困难，也不利于提升产品使用率，所以取巧的办法是把早期治疗与劣质护理对比——如果在全球范围开展试验，对照组会表现很差——就能轻松显示总生存获益。

原文 (en)

So the only appropriate study would be to randomize to early treatment vs current standard of care, and measure survival. But that would be difficult, and make it hard to increase uptake for your product, so the easy cheat code is to randomize to early treatment vs poor care— if you run your trial globally the control arm will tank— then you can easily show a OS benefit.

Prasad认为Aquila设计前后矛盾：要么用PFS并以来那度胺为对照，要么用OS并对照真正的美国标准治疗。

如果PFS是冒烟型骨髓瘤的合适终点，对照组应为来那度胺。如果来那度胺因从未在干净的试验中显示OS获益而不是标准治疗，那么Aquila的终点就应是OS，且应与真正的美国标准治疗而非劣质治疗对比。

原文 (en)

If PFS is a suitable endpoint for smoldering, the control arm should be Len. If Len isn’t standard of care for smoldering because it never shown an OS benefit (in a clean trial), then OS should be the endpoint of Aquila. But OS should be measured against actual US standard of care, not substandard care.

Prasad认为AI将极大颠覆认知型工作，并提到自己用AI工具核实生存曲线。

AI将对认知型工作产生极大的颠覆。

原文 (en)

AI is going to be so, so disruptive for cognitive work

Oyler认为BeOne实体瘤管线产出罕见，五个项目几乎同时推进至注册性开发。

大多数公司只有一个令人兴奋的资产，有些有两个。仅我们实体瘤管线的第一波就有五个，几乎同时推进至注册性开发。

原文 (en)

Most companies have just one exciting asset. Some have two. From just the first wave of our solid tumor pipeline, we have five, all advancing towards registration-enabling development in roughly the same time.

Oyler称CDK4抑制剂和B7-H4 ADC两年半内从首次人体试验进入关键性开发，体现全球开发体系的速度。

两者从首次人体试验到关键性开发仅用了两年半，使我们得以迅速缩小与竞争对手的差距。如今管线推进至注册试验，使BeOne跻身极少数肿瘤创新者之列。

原文 (en)

Both moved from first in human to pivotal development in just two and a half years, allowing us to rapidly close the gap with the competition. Now we are seeing that pipeline advance into registrational trials, which puts BeOne in an exceptionally select group of oncology innovators.

Oyler称四大竞争优势构成复利循环，公司将持续投入以打造全球领先的肿瘤公司。

这些优势形成自我强化的反馈循环，使我们能够规模化地实现行业领先的研发回报，将创新转化为盈利增长，并为下一代药物提供不断增加的投入。每一轮循环都会强化下一轮。

原文 (en)

These advantages create a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Together, they enable us to drive industry-leading R&D returns at scale, turn that innovation into profitable growth, and to fund a growing level of investment in next-generation medicines. Each turn of the cycle strengthens the next.

Ricks称语言模型因以人类语言训练而不擅长生物和化学，更倾向于使用多个针对具体预测问题的窄模型。

语言模型在生物和化学方面“并不特别擅长”，因为“它们是用人类语言训练的，而不是用化学、物理和生物的语言”。

原文 (en)

language models are “not particularly good” at biology and chemistry because “they’re trained on the human language, not on the language of chemistry, physics, and biology.”

Ricks 表示现在是合并礼来美国与国际商业部门、巩固发展势头的合适时机，并任命曾执掌这两块业务的 Ilya Yuffa 领导全球面向客户的运营。

为了巩固我们的发展势头，现在正是整合各地区业务、以产生更大影响力的合适时机。Ilya 既管理过我们的国际业务，也管理过美国业务，他丰富的经验和对卓越的追求使他格外适合领导我们全球面向客户的运营。

原文 (en)

To build on our momentum, now is the right time to consolidate our geographies for greater impact. Ilya has run both our international and U.S. businesses, and his range of experience and commitment to excellence make him uniquely qualified to lead our customer-facing operations worldwide.

布尔拉表示辉瑞暂时不做大型并购，转而聚焦已收购的癌症和肥胖症药物。

辉瑞首席执行官阿尔伯特·布尔拉表示，公司目前转而专注于通过收购获得的癌症和肥胖症药物。

原文 (en)

CEO Albert Bourla said the company is instead focusing on the cancer and obesity drugs it acquired through the ...

Bourla预计选举后分裂政府将限制立法变动，且不预期MFN药价协议会有任何变化。

但无论如何，看起来将出现分裂政府，所以我认为立法上不会有太多动作。我不预期MFN会有任何变化。我认为协议已经签署，并将持续到本届政府任期结束。

原文 (en)

But I think that in any case, looks like we will have a split government So I do not think that many things can move legislation wise. I do not expect any changes in MFN. I think the agreements are signed and are going until the end. Of the term of this government.

Bourla表示行业已从2025年对关税和MFN的担忧转为政策环境稳定，且预计将持续。

这与我一年前在2025年告诉你们的情况形成了巨大反差，当时我真的很担心关税或MFN可能带来的影响。我认为通过成功应对这些问题，我们带来了现在预计会持续的稳定性。

原文 (en)

it is a very big contrast vis a vis what I was telling you a year ago in 2025, I was really scared. About the implications that either tariffs or MFN could have. I think through the successful navigation, of those issues, we brought the stability that it is now projected to last.

Bourla将减肥药商业模式类比伟哥上市，认为自费支付和电商渠道会显著扩大国际市场规模。

人们愿意为自己看重的产品自掏腰包，无论是否报销。这使国际市场的规模大不相同。第二点是，由于这类上市具有消费属性，电商和互联网会像当年伟哥那样发挥关键作用。

原文 (en)

People are willing to pay out of pocket for products that they value irrelevant if they are reimbursed or not. That creates dramatically different size in the international markets. The second was that because of the consumer nature of these launch, the ecommerce and the Internet as it happened with Viagra.

Bourla表示AI正在改变药品推广方式，尤其是在患者层面。

再补充一个维度，AI正在改变目前的推广方式，不仅在医生层面，更重要的是在患者层面。

原文 (en)

And to add another dimension, AI is changing the way that promotions are happening right now. And not only at the physician's level, actually, even more importantly at the patient's level.

Bourla称辉瑞将在2026年推进10项减肥3期试验，包括转换至月制berobenatide的研究。

我们计划在2026年推进10项进行中和计划中的3期试验，其中包括一项评估从已获批周制疗法转换为我们在研月制GLP-1肽berobenatide的试验。

原文 (en)

We plan to advance 10 active and planned Phase 3 trials in 2026. Including 1 evaluating a switch from approved weekly therapies to our investigational monthly GLP-1 peptide berobenatide.

Bourla称辉瑞有望在2028至2033年实现经风险调整的高个位数营收复合增速。

我们有清晰路径实现目标：从2028年底到2033年底，经风险调整后的营收复合年增长率达到高个位数。

原文 (en)

We have line of sight to our aim of delivering a risk adjusted high single digit revenue CAGR from year-end 2028 through year-end 2033.

Bourla认为市场低估了辉瑞已上市产品，如Nurtec年化已近20亿美元。

我举两个例子，我认为大家需要重新评估。一是Nurtec，按年化计算我们已接近20亿美元，而市场预期到某年接近25亿美元。

原文 (en)

I will mention 2 as just examples that I think people need to reevaluate their assessment. 1, it is regarding Nurtec. That we are already close to $2 billion this.the way if you annualize it. And the street has us almost $2.5 billion by year 2020.

Bourla认为市场对Elrexfio仅6亿美元而竞品50亿美元的预测不合理，因其疗效相近且耐受性更好。

我再举Elrexfio的例子：市场预测竞品为50亿美元，而我们只有6亿美元。我们希望呈现疗效相近、耐受性和副作用更优的特征。

原文 (en)

I will also mention another example of Elrexfio. Where for a competing product, the street is forecasting $5 billion, and for us $600 million. We aspire to present the profile that is very similar in efficacy and better in tolerability and in side effects.

Bourla强调mevrometostat让辉瑞拥有全球全部权益，不同于只享有美国一半权益的Xtandi。

人们有时忘了Xtandi，我们在美国基本只拥有一半权益而已。而这里（mevrometostat）我们将拥有整个美国和全球国际市场。

原文 (en)

Sometimes people forget that Xtandi, which is 1 of our very big and strong product, we basically had half of the Xtandi in the U.S., and that is it. Here, we are going to have the whole US and the whole global international market.

Bourla表示辉瑞的目标是完全弥补专利到期的损失，预计2028年后恢复增长，2028至2033年实现高个位数增长。

我认为我们的目标是完全覆盖专利到期带来的缺口。2028年之后，我们预计公司将重回增长，并预测2028至2033年这五年将实现高个位数增长。

原文 (en)

I think uh our aim was to cover the whole thing. So post 28 uh we expect to turn into growth the company and to have made uh our projections that from 28 to 33 the 5year uh projections are high singledigit growth.

Bourla称辉瑞自新冠以来投入近800亿美元，约为第二名的两倍，被收购产品增长37%。

我们投入了近800亿美元，第二名大概约400亿美元。这个组合表现极好，被收购产品中80%来自三家公司，目前增长37%。

原文 (en)

We invested almost $80 billion. the second one probably around 40 and uh as you you've said uh the performance of this portfolio is doing extremely well actually the acquire products 80% of them were in uh three companies they are growing uh 37% right now

Bourla称减肥药市场规模巨大，辉瑞将在两年后以高度差异化的产品组合入局。

我认为机会巨大。这是最大的市场之一，催生了首家万亿美元市值公司礼来。我们两年后进入这个市场，带来的产品组合高度差异化。

原文 (en)

I think it's huge. The market is as you know one of the largest markets. This is the market that created the first $1 trillion company which is Lily with exceptional performance on the obesity. We are coming to this market now in two years and uh we are coming with a portfolio but it is highly differentiated very different.

Bourla认为每月一次给药将受到强烈偏好，使辉瑞既能争取新增GLP-1患者，也能转化维持期的每周制剂患者。

我们相信人们会非常偏好每月一次的产品，这不仅让我们能在每位新增GLP-1患者中获得可观份额，还能把处于维持期的每周制剂患者转到我们的每月制剂。

原文 (en)

We believe that uh for products that they are monthly there will be a huge preference from people and that will allow us not only to gain good market share of every new patient that is going into the GLP1s but also we can switch patients that they are already on their maintenance phase in the weekly products into our monthly.

Bourla表示，后期管线进展及近期大量关键数据读出，增强了辉瑞在重点领域扩大领先地位的机会。

我们后期管线的进展，加上近期预计将有大量关键性数据读出，正在增强我们在关键领域扩大领先地位的机会。

原文 (en)

Our late-stage pipeline progress, with a significant number of pivotal readouts expected near term, is strengthening our opportunity to extend our leadership in key areas.