Jim Burke

Burke表示选举结果不改变Vistra的基本判断，公司对AI建设的规划本就偏保守。

需要说明的是，在选举之前节奏就已受到影响，但我们的计划对AI建设一直持较为保守的看法。简单说，选举结果不会改变我们对Vistra所拥有机会的基本判断，团队已准备好继续执行。

原文 (en)

To be clear, the pacing was already being impacted ahead of the election, but our plans have always had a more conservative view of the AI build-out. Stated more simply, the election results do not change our fundamental view of the opportunities Vistra has, and our team is prepared to continue executing.

Burke称并网队列因开发商投机而被夸大，政策制定者正在寻求长期解决方案。

正如我们一直所说，全国尤其是ERCOT的负荷并网队列被夸大了，源于开发商为保留选择权而进行的投机。一些社区居民对拟议开发活动的规模感到担忧，这是可以理解的，政策制定者正在研究长期解决方案。

原文 (en)

As we've said for some time, load interconnect queues were overstated across the country and especially in ERCOT, driven by speculation from developers who are keeping options open to see where progress can be made. Residents in some communities are understandably concerned about the level of proposed development activity and policymakers are working on longer-term solutions.

Burke主张通过更高保证金、照付不议、设备确定性和终端客户协议来筛选并网项目。

提高这些项目的门槛有助于识别真正可能推进的项目，包括提高并网申请的保证金要求、对增量输电费用做出照付不议承诺、设备可见性以及与终端客户的协议。

原文 (en)

raising the bar on these projects can go a long way towards identifying the ones that are likely to move forward. This includes higher collateral requirements for interconnect requests, committing the take-or-pay agreement for the incremental wires charges, line of sight to equipment and an agreement with an end-use customer.

Burke维持到2030年ERCOT增长4-6%、PJM增长2-3%的判断，并称灵活燃气仍是最便宜最快的新增电源。

我们仍预计到2030年ERCOT负荷增长4%至6%，PJM为2%至3%。Vistra庞大多元的机组组合完全有能力满足这一增长。我们灵活的联合循环燃气电厂和快速启动调峰电厂可以更高利用率运行，这仍是最便宜、最快的新增发电来源。

原文 (en)

We still see load growth of 4% to 6% in ERCOT and 2% to 3% in PJM through 2030. Vistra with its large diversified fleet is well equipped to meet this growth. Our flexible combined cycle gas plants and quick-start peaking plants can operate at higher utilizations and that remains the cheapest and quickest source of incremental generation.

Burke看好可调度、灵活的联合循环机组，称随着可再生渗透率提高其利用率上升。

我们认为随着全国可再生能源渗透率提高，这些资产被调用得更多。附录中可见我们机组的联合循环容量因子在第三季度均高于往年。所以我们一直看好可调度电源和灵活性。

原文 (en)

We think as renewable penetration continues throughout the country, you're seeing these assets get called on more. And you see that even in the appendix where you look at the CCGT capacity factors across our fleet, they're all up in Q3 relative to prior years. So we've been bullish on dispatchable. We've been bullish on flexibility.

Burke称2030年展望未假设电价回升，ERCOT近期价格取决于负荷接入速度。

我们没有对电价回升做任何假设。它反映的是对冲组合中所见的远期曲线，并基于公开信息向前推演。近期关键在于德州能否重新加快负荷接入。

原文 (en)

We are not making any assumptions about power price recoveries. It reflects the curves as you see them as noted in our hedge profiles and just kind of stepping that forward based off public available information. Now we think the near term on this is really going to be function of how does Texas get back into gear in terms of hooking up load.

Burke警告德州若实行数据中心暂停令会给众多客户带来问题，但认为可能性不大。

如果德州决定实行暂停令，对很多客户都会造成问题，不仅仅是我们的Comanche Peak项目。我不知道会采取什么形式，这需要立法行动才可能形成这样的重大限制。

原文 (en)

if Texas decides to just go down a moratorium, it would be problematic, I think, for lots of customers, not just our Comanche Peak project. I don't know what form that would actually take. So that would take some potential legislative activity, I think, to have something that would create that type of a significant limiter.

Burke表示Vistra不会为追逐回购而在长期合同上讨价还价，目标是建立降低折现率的合同化业务。

我们不会为了应对一时的回购机会，在长期客户关系中为每兆瓦时1到2美元斤斤计较。这是一项特许经营业务，我们有声誉，我们要构建一个合同化的业务组合，最终也会降低折现率。

原文 (en)

we're not going to work with long-term customer relationships and negotiate around $1 or $2 a megawatt hour trying to just react to the stock buyback opportunity in the moment. This is a franchise, and we have a reputation, and we're going to build a book of business that will also be a contracted book of business, which I think also lowers the discount rate ultimately.

Burke称Vistra在2028年ERCOT刻意少对冲，等待负荷接入节奏和积压需求的信号。

2028年整体对冲78%，但ERCOT的对冲比例远低于此。因此我们看2028年曲线，目前并不觉得需要大量出售电力。我们还要观察2027年负荷接入的节奏和被压抑的需求。

原文 (en)

with the 78% hedged for '28, we are much less hedged in ERCOT than the 78%. So we do not look at the curves for 2028 and feel a need to be moving a lot of power at this point in time. And I do think as we see what the pace of play is for hooking up load in 2027 and seeing what the pent-up demand is

Burke支持PJM转向双边合同，认为RBP推迟有利于双边谈判。

我们一直支持强调双边合同，支持市场转向通过合同采购容量和电量，而不是过度依赖集中拍卖的单一出清价格。RBP在时间上推迟有助于促进双边谈判。

原文 (en)

we've been supportive of the emphasis on bilaterals and markets moving towards contracting for capacity and energy and not being as dependent on a single clearing price of a centralized auction. And I think the pushout of the RBP a little bit from a timing standpoint can help facilitate some of those bilateral conversations.

Burke 表示 Cogentrix 收购完成后新增约 5,500 兆瓦天然气发电，使 Vistra 能很好地应对不断增长的电力需求。

随着 Cogentrix 收购完成，我们的组合新增了约 5,500 兆瓦天然气发电容量，我们仍然为未来不断增长的需求做好了准备。

原文 (en)

With the Cogentrix acquisition now closed, we've added approximately 5,500 MW of new natural gas-fueled generation to our portfolio, and we continue to be well positioned for the growing demand ahead.

Burke 认为随着电力格局演变，类似 Odessa 长期购电协议的机会会越来越多。

随着电力格局的演变，我们持续看到更多这样的机会。我们的团队仍然专注于为客户提供安全、可靠且价格可负担的电力，并期待强势收官今年。

原文 (en)

As the power landscape evolves, we continue to see more of these opportunities. Our team remains focused on delivering safe, reliable, and affordable electricity to our customers, and we look forward to finishing the year strong.

Burke 指出 7 月 ERCOT 和 PJM 创下峰值需求纪录，期间 Vistra 机组商业可用率近 95%。

今年夏天我们的各个市场天气创下纪录，7月 ERCOT 和 PJM 均创下新的历史峰值需求纪录。在此期间，我们的机组商业可用率接近 95%。

原文 (en)

This summer brought record weather across our markets, including the new all-time peak demand records in July in both ERCOT and PJM. Through that period, our fleet achieved commercial availability of nearly 95%.

Jim Burke 表示天然气对满足美国不断增长的能源需求至关重要，Cogentrix 资产契合 Vistra 扩大发电组合的战略。

天然气在满足美国日益增长的能源需求方面发挥着关键作用，Cogentrix 的资产与 Vistra 在持续扩大发电组合的过程中高度契合。

原文 (en)

Natural gas plays a critical role in meeting our nation's growing energy needs, and the Cogentrix assets are a strong strategic fit for Vistra as we continue to grow our generation portfolio