国际能源署（IEA） · 署长 电力与核能
IEA 报告发布会和访谈，对全球电力需求、数据中心用电的判断
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Birol称“35-by-35”电气化目标主要将通过交通领域削减石油需求，并会遭到希望石油需求不降的国家反对。
如果这一电气化目标得以实现或达成，主要影响将是降低石油需求，因为主要冲击在交通运输领域，这将是关键。有些国家出于自身利益不愿看到石油需求下降。地缘政治给能源蒙上了漫长而黑暗的阴影。原文 (en)
If this electrification target is met or agreed, the main implication will be reducing oil demand because the main implication will be on the transportation sector, and it will be a key. “There are countries who have some interest to not see the oil demand going down. Geopolitics has a long and dark shadow on energy.
Birol认为澳大利亚尽管出口化石燃料，仍适合主导气候谈判，并表示世界最好有至少五个这样的澳大利亚。
在应对气候变化方面，我会更放心的是，世界上不止一个而是至少有五个澳大利亚。原文 (en)
In fighting climate change, he says, “I would feel much better if there were not one, but at least five Australias in this world.”
Birol 称，未来五年可再生能源在全球发电量中的占比将从三分之一升至近一半。
未来五年，可再生能源预计将从占全球发电量的三分之一增长到接近一半。原文 (en)
Over the next five years, renewables are expected to grow from one-third to nearly half of global electricity generation
比罗尔表示，如今推动可再生能源扩张的主要是能源安全而非环境考虑，各国希望减少对进口燃料的依赖。
"此前，环境问题是推动可再生能源增长的政策重点，成本下降也使其在许多市场具备竞争力；但如今，推动可再生能源扩张的主要是能源安全，越来越多国家希望降低对进口燃料的依赖。"原文 (en)
"Previously, environmental concerns were the policy priority behind the growth of renewables, whose falling costs have made them a competitive option in many markets - but today, it's mainly energy security that is driving renewables' expansion as more and more countries seek to reduce their exposure to imported fuels," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
比罗尔称可再生能源正在全球扩散，占全球发电量的比重将从目前的三分之一在五年内升至接近一半。
"可再生能源增长故事的新篇章真正具有全球性，其部署已远远超出主要市场，扩展到世界每个角落。这使其成为全球电力行业的关键支柱。如今它们占全球发电量的三分之一；未来五年将接近一半。"原文 (en)
"The new chapter of the renewables growth story is a truly global one as their deployment spreads well beyond major markets into every corner of the world. This is making them a key pillar of the global power sector. Today, they account for a third of global electricity generation; in the next five years, they will be getting closer to half of it."
比罗尔表示，现有技术和政策工具已足以大幅提升建筑能效、降低排放和能源账单，当务之急是尽快落地实施。
“更节能的建筑可以在全球范围内减少排放，同时切实改善人们的日常生活。加快进展，我们可以降低能源账单，帮助更多人获得安全、可负担的能源。这份报告表明，我们已经拥有实现这些好处的技术和政策工具。当前的首要任务是把它们付诸实施。”原文 (en)
"More energy-efficient buildings can cut emissions worldwide while making a tangible difference to people's daily lives," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. "By accelerating progress, we can lower energy bills and help more people access secure, affordable energy. This report shows that we already have the technologies and policy tools to deliver these benefits. The priority now is to put them to work."
比罗尔称，印度可再生能源扩张提升了其能源安全，也表明持续一致的政策能降低成本、吸引投资，值得其他新兴经济体借鉴。
在全球能源市场不确定性加剧之际，印度的可再生能源扩张正为其能源安全带来重大好处。各国都在设法加强国内能源供应，印度的经验表明，持续一致的政策可以帮助降低可再生能源成本并吸引投资，为其他新兴经济体提供宝贵借鉴。原文 (en)
India’s renewables expansion is delivering major benefits for its energy security at a time of heightened uncertainty in global energy markets. As countries look to strengthen domestic energy supplies, India’s experience shows how consistent policies can help drive down renewable energy costs and attract investment, offering valuable lessons for other emerging economies.
比罗尔称，印度可再生能源扩张在全球能源市场不确定之际带来重大能源安全收益，其稳定一致的政策可降低成本、吸引投资，并为其他新兴经济体提供借鉴。
国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔表示，在全球能源市场不确定性加剧之际，印度的可再生能源扩张正带来重大的能源安全效益。他指出，印度的经验表明，稳定且一以贯之的政策措施可以降低可再生能源成本、吸引投资，并为其他新兴经济体提供借鉴。原文 (en)
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said India's renewable energy expansion is delivering major energy security benefits at a time of heightened uncertainty in global energy markets. He noted that India's experience demonstrates how stable and consistent policy measures can help lower renewable energy costs, attract investments and provide lessons for other emerging economies.
比罗尔称全球太阳能增长最快，其次是风能，燃油价格上涨也推动生物燃料使用增加。
全球范围内，太阳能增长最快，其次是风能。柴油和汽油价格上涨也推动了生物燃料使用量的增加。原文 (en)
Globally, solar energy is seeing the fastest growth, followed by wind. Rising prices for diesel and gasoline have also spurred an increase in the use of biofuels
比罗尔称各国为降低石油依赖而推动电动车快速扩张，这一趋势已超出欧洲范围。
过去几个月，电动车在全球多个市场快速扩张，减少对石油的依赖是关键驱动力。多个国家通过补贴和税收优惠加快交通电气化。这一趋势不仅限于欧洲，在巴西、澳大利亚和整个东南亚也很明显。原文 (en)
Over the past few months, EVs have seen rapid expansion in various markets worldwide, with the desire to reduce dependence on oil serving as a key driver. Several countries are accelerating the electrification of transport through measures such as subsidies and tax incentives. This trend is not limited to Europe; it is also evident in Brazil, Australia, and across Southeast Asia.
比罗尔称自3月以来世界面临历史上最大的能源安全挑战。
历史上最大的能源安全挑战原文 (en)
the greatest energy security challenge in history
比罗尔称赞中国作为APEC能源部长会议东道主和主席国发挥了关键作用。
中国作为东道主和主席国发挥了关键作用。原文 (en)
China played a crucial role as the host and chair.
法提赫·比罗尔称，2027年油价看不到可信的回归正常路径。
国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔本周表示，他认为2027年油价“没有可信的路径”恢复正常。原文 (en)
the International Energy Agency's executive director, Fatih Birol, said this week he sees "no credible pathway" for oil prices to normalize in 2027
比罗尔警告称，明年油气价格将维持高位，成品油价格更高。
国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔警告称，明年石油和天然气价格仍将居高不下，而成品油价格还会更高。原文 (en)
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that oil and natural gas prices will remain high next year, while prices for petroleum products are even higher.
Birol表示核电正在复苏，在建规模达90吉瓦，为四十年来最高。
三年半前，我曾说核电正在卷土重来。如今在建核电站规模达到创纪录的90吉瓦，是过去四十年来的最高水平。原文 (en)
Three and a half years ago, I claimed nuclear is making a comeback. The historic number is now 90 gigawatts of nuclear power plants under construction. This is the highest in the last four decades,
法蒂赫·比罗尔称霍尔木兹海峡中断是全球石油市场历史上最大的供应冲击。
全球石油市场历史上最大的供应冲击原文 (en)
the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market
比罗尔称，受中东局势推高传统燃料成本影响，太阳能、核能、煤电和电动车需求激增是直接反应。
国际能源署执行主任法提赫·比罗尔在新加坡国际能源周上阐述了这一现实，指出太阳能、核能和煤电以及电动汽车需求激增，是对传统燃料成本大幅上涨的直接应对。原文 (en)
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), outlined this reality during the Singapore International Energy Week, noting that the surge in demand for solar, nuclear, and coal generation, alongside electric vehicles (EVs), is a direct operational response to the sharp increase in traditional fuel costs.
比罗尔强调地缘政治已成能源领域的主导变量，能源安全成为首要任务，市场至少到2027年都不会回到冲突前状态。
比罗尔强调，地缘政治已成为影响该行业的主导变量，使能源安全成为首要任务。因此该机构预测，随着新的供应链和需求结构固化，能源市场至少在2027年前不会恢复到冲突前的状态。原文 (en)
Birol emphasized that geopolitics has become the dominant variable influencing the sector, elevating energy security to a paramount priority. Consequently, the agency forecasts that energy markets will not revert to their pre-conflict state-at least not until 2027-as new supply chains and demand structures solidify.
比罗尔呼吁在石油供应持续受扰的背景下，政府和企业把能源安全放在首位。
能源安全必须成为政府和企业的头号优先事项。原文 (en)
Energy security must become the number one priority for governments and businesses
Birol称世界正进入电力时代，尽管油气仍在使用，电力需求仍快速增长。
Birol表示，世界正在进入电力时代：尽管石油、天然气和液化天然气仍在使用，电力需求仍在快速增长。原文 (en)
Birol said that the world is entering an era of electricity: despite the continued use of oil, natural gas and liquefied natural gas, electricity demand is growing rapidly.
Birol警告称清洁能源技术供应链高度集中可能成为问题，尤其对东南亚。
在新加坡，国际能源署署长Fatih Birol警告称，能源转型技术的全球供应链高度集中。他在新加坡国际能源周上发言时未点名涉及的国家。他表示，这种集中度可能成为问题，尤其是对东南亚。原文 (en)
In Singapore, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned of the high concentration of global supply chains for energy transition technologies. Speaking at Singapore International Energy Week, Birol did not name the countries involved in these supply chains. According to him, such concentration could become a problem, particularly for Southeast Asia.
法提赫·比罗尔表示，受伊朗冲突影响，能源市场在2027年不太可能恢复到战前状态，供应链将受到持久冲击。
国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔周一表示，能源市场在2027年不太可能恢复到战前状态，凸显了人们对这场冲突对供应链持久影响的担忧。原文 (en)
The International Energy Agency's executive director, Fatih Birol, said on Monday that energy markets were unlikely to return to their pre-war conditions in 2027, underscoring concerns about the lasting impact of the conflict on supply chains.
比罗尔警告称，欧洲入冬时天然气储备处于历史低位，无法承受进一步的供应中断。
Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, warned that Europe is entering winter with historically low gas reserves and will not be able to withstand further disruptions.
Birol 警告称，能源市场明年不太可能恢复到伊朗战争前的状态。
恐怕我看不到任何可信的路径，能让市场明年回到这场战争爆发之前的状态。原文 (en)
“I am afraid I don’t see any credible pathway that the markets will go next year, where we were before this war has started,”
Birol 呼吁政府和企业把能源安全放在首位，同时不忘规划未来的能源体系方向。
因此，我们都需要做好准备，把能源安全作为政府和商界的头号优先事项，同时不要忘记今天在座各国和各公司的下一章是什么。原文 (en)
“So therefore, we all need to get prepared, taking the energy security as a number one priority in our government, business world, but without forgetting what is the next chapter for the countries and for companies that are all here today,”
Birol 预计核能投资将复苏，称全球在建核电装机达 90 吉瓦，为四十年来最高。
Birol also projected a resurgence in nuclear energy investment, revealing that an IEA survey identified 90 gigawatts of nuclear power capacity currently under construction globally, the highest level recorded in four decades.
Birol 表示，当前能源危机推高了各国对核电的兴趣，因为核电安全、可作基荷电力并能降低对外依赖。
“当前危机使各国对核电的需求上升，因为核能是一种安全的能源。因此对其他国家的依赖更少，而且它是非常需要的基荷电力。”原文 (en)
“The appetite for nuclear power has now increased as a result of the current crisis, because nuclear is a safe energy source. “Therefore, reliance on other countries is less, and it is baseload electricity, which is very much needed,” he told reporters on the sidelines of Singapore International Energy Week 2026 (SIEW 2026) here.
Birol 警告，柴油价格高企在种植季来临之际会冲击全球经济和农业，并可能推高粮价。
“让我担心的是，柴油对全球经济非常重要，对农业部门也非常重要，因为许多国家正进入种植季。”原文 (en)
“What worries me is that diesel is very important for the global economy, and it is also very important for the agriculture sector, as many countries are entering the planting season,” he said.
Birol 指出评估危机不能只看原油价格，柴油、LPG、瓦斯油和航空燃油等成品油供应同样严峻。
“我们不应只关注原油价格。我们使用炼油厂，如今成品油面临重大挑战，首先是柴油，还有液化石油气、瓦斯油和航空燃油。”原文 (en)
“We should not only be focused on crude oil prices. We use refineries, and today we are seeing significant challenges in refined products, starting with diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), gasoil and jet fuel,” he said.
Birol 建议发展核电的国家审慎选择合作伙伴、确保获得最佳技术并保持成本竞争力。
“你选择的核能合作伙伴国，你将与其相处近100年，因为一旦‘结婚’就无法‘离婚’。其次，该国需确保获得最好的技术来建设核工业。第三，成本应具有竞争力。”原文 (en)
“The country you are going to choose as your nuclear partner, you will live with this country almost 100 years because once you get ‘married’, you cannot ‘divorce’. “Secondly, the country needs to make sure that it gets the best technology to build the nuclear industry. And thirdly, cost should be competitive,” he said.
比罗尔表示，预计2027年能源市场不会回到伊朗战争前的水平，加剧了对供应的担忧。
国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔周一在新加坡的一场行业活动上表示，他预计2027年能源市场不会恢复到伊朗战争之前的水平，从而进一步强化了人们对供应形势的担忧。原文 (en)
The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, reinforced the concerns about the supply situation, saying on Monday at an industry event in Singapore that he does not expect energy markets in 2027 to return to where they were before the Iran war.
比罗尔警告称，若冬季严寒，欧洲天然气价格可能进一步上涨，未来两年欧洲都将艰难。
如果遇到严冬，欧洲天然气价格可能涨得更高。今年和明年对欧洲来说都不会轻松。原文 (en)
If we experience a harsh winter, natural gas prices in Europe could rise even higher. It won't be easy for Europe this year and next year,
比罗尔表示，无论中东冲突走向如何，其对能源市场的影响都将持续数月，并深刻改变全球能源运输方式。
无论中东冲突如何发展，对能源市场的影响都将持续数月。原文 (en)
Regardless of how the conflict in the Middle East unfolds, the impact on energy markets will last for months,
Birol 表示，受伊朗战争造成的供应短缺影响，全球能源市场到 2027 年不会恢复到战前状态，并呼吁政府和企业优先考虑能源安全。
Birol 表示，他认为明年市场看不到可靠的路径回到此前的状态。原文 (en)
Birol said he does not see a reliable path for markets to return to previous conditions next year.
Birol 警告冬季燃料需求压力，尤其是西方取暖柴油，并称由于俄罗斯、卡塔尔和阿联酋供应减少，欧洲将面临严冬、天然气市场趋紧。
Birol 对某些燃料的冬季需求表示担忧，尤其是西方用于取暖的柴油，并解释说部分地区的炼油厂检修在冬季临近之际加剧了这些担忧。原文 (en)
Birol expressed concern about winter demand for certain fuels, especially diesel used for heating in the West, explaining that refinery maintenance in some regions is adding to worries as winter approaches.
Birol 预测核电将强势回归，并称在建规模达 90 吉瓦，为四十年来最高。
Birol 预测，在当前危机之下核能行业将“强势回归”，并指出国际能源署最新调查显示在建核电站达 90 吉瓦，为四十年来最高。原文 (en)
Birol predicted a "strong comeback" for the nuclear sector as a result of the current crisis, noting that the latest IEA survey shows 90 gigawatts of nuclear power plants under construction, the highest figure in forty years.
比罗尔表示，2027年能源市场看不到回到战前状态的可信路径，并呼吁政府和企业把能源安全作为头号优先事项。
“恐怕我看不到任何可信的路径，能让明年的市场回到这场战争爆发之前的状态。”国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔在新加坡国际能源周上表示。“因此，我们都需要做好准备，把能源安全作为政府和商界的头号优先事项，同时也不能忘记对各国和各公司而言下一阶段是什么。”原文 (en)
“I am afraid I don’t see any credible pathway that the markets will go next year where we were before this war has started,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told the Singapore International Energy Week conference. “So therefore, we all need to get prepared, taking the energy security as a number one priority in our government, business world, but without forgetting what is the next chapter for the countries and for companies that are all here today,” he said.
Birol警告称2027年能源市场无法回到伊朗战争前水平，呼吁政府和企业把能源安全放在首位。
我担心市场明年没有现实的路径回到战前水平。因此我们都必须做好准备，让能源安全成为政府和企业的首要任务，同时不要忽视在座各国和企业的下一阶段。原文 (en)
I fear there is no realistic path for markets to return next year to pre-war levels. Therefore, we must all prepare, making energy security a top priority for governments and businesses, while not losing sight of the next phase for the countries and companies represented here today.
Birol称当前油价对欧洲等地尚可承受，但接近每桶120美元会显著加重许多地区的贸易赤字。
我可以说，当前油价可能并不过高，对欧洲等一些国家来说尚可承受。但油价达到每桶约120美元，会对世界许多地区的贸易赤字造成重大影响。原文 (en)
I can say that the current oil price may not be excessively high and could be manageable for some countries, such as those in Europe. However, prices reaching around $120 per barrel have a significant impact on the trade deficit in many regions of the world.
Birol担忧冬季柴油需求上升且多家炼油厂检修，成品油供应面临压力。
我也担心成品油，因为我们正进入冬季，世界部分地区柴油需求通常上升，而与此同时几家炼油厂正在检修。原文 (en)
I am also concerned about refined oil products, as we are entering the winter season, when diesel demand typically rises in some parts of the world, coinciding with several refineries undergoing maintenance.
Birol表示欧洲冬季艰难，俄气进口削减叠加卡塔尔和阿联酋出口受限，天然气市场压力巨大。
在欧洲国家决定削减俄罗斯天然气进口后，欧洲将面临一个艰难的冬天。当前伊朗战争带来的额外问题是，卡塔尔和阿联酋无法按以往水平出口天然气，给天然气市场造成巨大压力。原文 (en)
Europe faces a difficult winter after European countries decided to cut Russian gas imports. The additional problem from the current war with Iran is that Qatar and the UAE are unable to export gas at previous levels, putting significant pressure on gas markets.
Birol预计当前危机将推动核能行业强劲回归。
我预计在当前危机的推动下，核能行业将迎来“强劲回归”。原文 (en)
I expect the nuclear energy sector to see a 'strong comeback' as a result of the current crisis.
Birol称，到2035年将电力在全球终端能源消费中的占比从23%提高到35%是非常重要的目标。
目前电力占全球能源消费总量的23%。到2035年将这一比例提高到35%，也就是从23%提升到35%，是一个非常重要的目标。原文 (en)
Electricity currently accounts for 23% of total energy consumption worldwide. Raising this to 35% by 2035, in other words, increasing it from 23% to 35%, is a very important goal
Birol表示，如果众多国家在安塔利亚签署，将是巨大成就，并向市场和投资者发出强烈信号。
如果许多国家，数十个甚至上百个，在安塔利亚签署这一承诺，我相信这将是一项巨大成就，并向全球市场和投资者发出强烈信号。原文 (en)
If many countries, dozens or even hundreds, sign up to this in Antalya, I believe it would be an enormous achievement and send a strong signal to global markets and investors
Birol指出，电动车占全球新车销量比例五年内从5%升至32%，推高电力需求。
五年前，全球售出的汽车中只有5%是电动车。今年这一比例是32%。这也进一步推动了电力需求。原文 (en)
Five years ago, only 5% of cars sold worldwide were electric. This year, the figure is 32%. This is also providing an additional boost to electricity demand
Birol警告称，最大挑战是电网输送而非发电，全球都存在电网问题。
我认为最大的挑战不是建设电厂。全球都在建，但挑战在于通过电网把电力输送到家庭和工厂。目前全球存在电网问题。原文 (en)
I believe the biggest challenge is not building power plants. We are doing that around the world, but the challenge is delivering this electricity to homes and factories through power grids. There is currently a grid problem worldwide.
Birol表示，IEA将每年报告各国在电气化目标上的进展。
我们将被赋予每年报告各国取得了什么、未能实现什么的任务。我们会履行这一任务，向全球公众通报各国进展或未达标情况，以及哪些国家需要支持。原文 (en)
We will be given the task of reporting every year on what each country has achieved and what it has failed to achieve. We will carry out this task and inform the global public about how much progress each country has made or failed to make, as well as which countries need support
比罗尔警告全球缺乏稳定能源价格的缓冲空间，欧洲冬季天然气库存远低于历史均值。
国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔本周警告称，世界缺乏足够的“缓冲地带”来稳定能源价格，且欧洲进入冬季时天然气库存远低于历史平均水平。原文 (en)
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned this week that the world is running short of "buffer zones" to hold energy prices where they are, and that Europe is entering winter with gas stocks well below historical averages.
比罗尔警告称，随着播种季开始，柴油价格上涨和化肥供应中断可能在未来几个月推高食品价格。
国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔上周在新加坡警告称，柴油价格上涨和化肥供应中断可能在未来几个月推高食品价格，尤其是在许多国家的农民进入播种季之际。原文 (en)
International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol warned in Singapore last week that higher diesel prices and disruptions to fertiliser supplies could push food prices up in the coming months, particularly as farmers in many countries enter the planting season.
Birol预计能源危机将在2027年以某种形式持续，找不到令人信服的理由相信局势会恢复正常。
“我对2027年恢复正常并不乐观，”他说。“即使我努力乐观地看待，也找不到能说服我的理由。”“这场危机在2027年仍将以某种形式持续。只要没有新的创伤出现，世界仍将在努力愈合伤口。”原文 (en)
“I am not optimistic about normalization in 2027,” he said. “Even when I try to look at things optimistically, I cannot find an argument that convinces me.” “This crisis will continue in one form or another in 2027. The world will still be trying to heal its wounds, provided no new wounds emerge,” he added.