Jim Burke

Burke said the election results don't alter Vistra's fundamental outlook, as its plans already assumed a conservative AI build-out.

To be clear, the pacing was already being impacted ahead of the election, but our plans have always had a more conservative view of the AI build-out. Stated more simply, the election results do not change our fundamental view of the opportunities Vistra has, and our team is prepared to continue executing.

Burke argued interconnection queues are inflated by speculative developers and that policymakers are working on longer-term fixes.

As we've said for some time, load interconnect queues were overstated across the country and especially in ERCOT, driven by speculation from developers who are keeping options open to see where progress can be made. Residents in some communities are understandably concerned about the level of proposed development activity and policymakers are working on longer-term solutions.

Burke advocates higher collateral, take-or-pay commitments, equipment visibility and end-customer agreements to filter interconnection requests.

raising the bar on these projects can go a long way towards identifying the ones that are likely to move forward. This includes higher collateral requirements for interconnect requests, committing the take-or-pay agreement for the incremental wires charges, line of sight to equipment and an agreement with an end-use customer.

Burke maintains 4-6% ERCOT and 2-3% PJM load growth through 2030 and says flexible gas remains the cheapest, quickest incremental supply.

We still see load growth of 4% to 6% in ERCOT and 2% to 3% in PJM through 2030. Vistra with its large diversified fleet is well equipped to meet this growth. Our flexible combined cycle gas plants and quick-start peaking plants can operate at higher utilizations and that remains the cheapest and quickest source of incremental generation.

Burke is bullish on dispatchable, flexible CCGT assets, citing higher capacity factors as renewables grow.

We think as renewable penetration continues throughout the country, you're seeing these assets get called on more. And you see that even in the appendix where you look at the CCGT capacity factors across our fleet, they're all up in Q3 relative to prior years. So we've been bullish on dispatchable. We've been bullish on flexibility.

Burke said the 2030 outlook assumes no power price recovery; near-term ERCOT pricing hinges on how fast load is connected.

We are not making any assumptions about power price recoveries. It reflects the curves as you see them as noted in our hedge profiles and just kind of stepping that forward based off public available information. Now we think the near term on this is really going to be function of how does Texas get back into gear in terms of hooking up load.

Burke warned a Texas data center moratorium would be problematic for many customers but considers it unlikely.

if Texas decides to just go down a moratorium, it would be problematic, I think, for lots of customers, not just our Comanche Peak project. I don't know what form that would actually take. So that would take some potential legislative activity, I think, to have something that would create that type of a significant limiter.

Burke said Vistra won't haggle over long-term contracts to chase buybacks, aiming for a contracted book that lowers the discount rate.

we're not going to work with long-term customer relationships and negotiate around $1 or $2 a megawatt hour trying to just react to the stock buyback opportunity in the moment. This is a franchise, and we have a reputation, and we're going to build a book of business that will also be a contracted book of business, which I think also lowers the discount rate ultimately.

Burke said Vistra is deliberately under-hedged in ERCOT for 2028, awaiting signs of load connection pace and pent-up demand.

with the 78% hedged for '28, we are much less hedged in ERCOT than the 78%. So we do not look at the curves for 2028 and feel a need to be moving a lot of power at this point in time. And I do think as we see what the pace of play is for hooking up load in 2027 and seeing what the pent-up demand is

Burke supports PJM's shift toward bilateral contracting and sees the RBP delay as helping those deals.

we've been supportive of the emphasis on bilaterals and markets moving towards contracting for capacity and energy and not being as dependent on a single clearing price of a centralized auction. And I think the pushout of the RBP a little bit from a timing standpoint can help facilitate some of those bilateral conversations.

Burke says the closed Cogentrix deal adds about 5,500 MW of gas generation and leaves Vistra well positioned for growing power demand.

With the Cogentrix acquisition now closed, we've added approximately 5,500 MW of new natural gas-fueled generation to our portfolio, and we continue to be well positioned for the growing demand ahead.

Burke sees more long-term power agreement opportunities like the Odessa deal as the power landscape evolves.

As the power landscape evolves, we continue to see more of these opportunities. Our team remains focused on delivering safe, reliable, and affordable electricity to our customers, and we look forward to finishing the year strong.

Burke notes record peak demand in ERCOT and PJM in July, during which Vistra's fleet kept nearly 95% commercial availability.

This summer brought record weather across our markets, including the new all-time peak demand records in July in both ERCOT and PJM. Through that period, our fleet achieved commercial availability of nearly 95%.

Jim Burke says natural gas is critical to meeting growing U.S. energy demand and that the Cogentrix assets fit Vistra's strategy of growing its generation portfolio.

Natural gas plays a critical role in meeting our nation's growing energy needs, and the Cogentrix assets are a strong strategic fit for Vistra as we continue to grow our generation portfolio