Christophe Fouquet

Fouquet said ASML would struggle to meet demand even with planned capacity increases, reflecting customer inquiries for 2029-2030 deliveries.

Chief executive Christophe Fouquet said at the time that ASML would struggle to meet demand even with planned capacity increases.

Fouquet said customers are already interested in ordering equipment for 2029-2030 and that ASML's planned 2027-2028 capacity will fall short of demand.

CEO Christophe Fouquet said customers have expressed interest in ordering equipment for 2029 and 2030. In fact, ASML now expects its planned capacity for 2027 and 2028 to fall short of customer demand.

Original (zh)

行政總裁Christophe Fouquet表示，客戶已表達對訂購2029與2030年設備的興趣。事實上，ASML現預期其2027與2028年計劃產能將低於客戶需求。

Fouquet says customers keep raising equipment demand forecasts on AI investment outlook, with some wanting to order for 2029 and 2030.

Our customers continue to increase their short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts with us, driven primarily by their views on the size and duration of AI-related investments. In light of their demand visibility, some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030.

Fouquet says planned 2027 and 2028 supply will fall short of demand, so ASML is exploring capacity increases beyond the previously announced 30% for 2028.

we now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers. Given this, we are investigating ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the 30% increase we previously communicated.

Fouquet reaffirms 2030 targets of €44–60 billion revenue and 56–60% gross margin, citing EUV cost progress driving litho intensity.

We also see that the progress we continue to make on our cost of technology with EUV is driving for more lith intensity and that's again something that has been confirmed in the last few months. So if we look in uh to the long term in line to what we said in November 2024 for 2030 we expect a revenue between 44 and 60 billion euro and a gross margin between 56 and 60%.

Fouquet says metrology and inspection grew nearly 30%, with multi-beam e-beam inspection becoming increasingly critical.

Inspection methology, Roger touched on that. Uh almost 30% growth this year. Uh which is significant. uh it means that both the need for those product is high but also the product we're offering are basically meeting our customer need both on optical over metrology but also EBAM inspection and on eB inspection multi-beam is becoming more and more critical

Fouquet expects rising litho intensity, with DRAM's 6F² to 4F² transition driving more use of immersion and low-NA EUV.

We also expect low NAUV to continue to see more utilization moving forward. We talked a lot about litho intensity. When we look at for example the transition from 6 F square to 4S square on DM, we also expect both immersion and low NA to be used even more.

Fouquet says High-NA EUV qualification is progressing well, with Intel accepting its first EXE:5200 for high-volume manufacturing.

Looking at INA, uh customer continue to make good progress on the qualification. I talked about the free phases in the past. A lot of customer are finalizing their R&D phases with the 5,000. Intel has reported that they have accepted their first 5200 which means basically they have the first tool that will be used in high volume manufacturing

Fouquet says there is a strong belief AI demand is real, driving major capacity additions starting in 2026 and lasting beyond.

So alto together we see a very positive dynamic. I think a strong belief that the AI demand is real and a preparation for that with on the short term a major addition of capacity. This will start in 2026 and will last beyond that.

Fouquet expects very tight DRAM supply in 2026 and likely beyond due to strong HBM and DDR demand, with customers adding EUV layers on 1b/1c nodes.

When I look at DRM there also the demand is very strong for HBM of course but also for DDR and this mostly will lead to a very tight supply at least in 2026 and most probably beyond that. So we see our customer ramping 1B 1 C node which are going to be critical for that demand and on those nodes we see them increasing basically the amount of EUV layers.

Fouquet says logic customers are more confident in sustained AI demand and are accelerating capacity plans and moving from 4nm to 3nm.

If I look at logic first, so there I think we see our customers starting to be more comfortable about the sustainability of the long-term AI demand and this means that they are more willing to accelerate their capacity planning. They are transitioning also from 4 nanometer technology to 3 nometer technology which is going to be more demanding in term of advanced technology.

Fouquet says the market outlook has notably improved as AI infrastructure buildup translates into capacity demand at advanced chipmakers.

Well, I think that uh Ro already mentioned very clearly that uh the market outlook has notably improved in the last few months and this is especially true when it comes to the buildup of the capacity for AI application being data server or other infrastructure. Now we start to see that this uh buildup is also translating into need for capacity at our advanced customer.

Fouquet says AI is driving advanced DRAM and logic, raising litho intensity, a trend he expects to continue.

we said that most probably AI will drive more advanced application in semiconductor. So advanced DM advanced logic I think this is happening and this is driving more advanced litho higher litho intensity and we expect that to continue

Fouquet sees 3D integration as a new opportunity where ASML's holistic lithography technology can be transferred, starting with the XT260 packaging scanner.

Our customer have told us that there is a need for innovation in 3D integration because their requirement will become more and more stringent. When we look at those requirements, we also see that a lot of the technology we have developed for holistic disography can be transferred to 3D integration and this is why we are looking at several opportunities.

Fouquet says High-NA EUV has run over 300,000 wafers at customers and is maturing faster than Low-NA did.

on ina we shared the fact that at our customer more than 300,000 wafer were now run and some of our customer also reported the fact that the maturity of INA today is quite ahead of what the maturity of lo was at a certain period of time.

Fouquet expects 2026 net sales not below 2025, with EUV growing and DUV declining due to China.

but still for 2026, we expect our net sales to not be below 2025. If we look at our product mix, the dynamics are going to favor EUV, which we believe will increase, while the dynamic in China will most probably lower the business in DPUV.

Fouquet expects Chinese customer demand to be significantly lower in 2026 than in 2024-25.

On the other hand, when we look at China, we believe that the demand of our Chinese customer is going to be significantly lower in 2026 than it has been in 2024 and 25 where we had very strong business there.

Fouquet says strong AI commitments are driving investment in advanced logic and DRAM and AI will benefit a broader share of ASML's customers.

First, we continue to see strong news about commitment to AI, which means we think investment in advanced logic and DRM. Second, and that's very important for us, it looks like AI is going to benefit a larger part of our customer base.

Fouquet reaffirms ASML's 2030 target of €44–60 billion revenue and 56–60% gross margin.

So in term of long-term forecast, we remain consistent with what we have said in our capital market day. We see an opportunity for 20130 of a total revenue between 44 and 60 billion euro and a gross margin between 56 and 60%.

Fouquet sees a very strong long-term semiconductor market driven by AI, despite short-term uncertainty from tariffs, export controls and macro.

long-term the semiconductor market remains very strong and I think uh a lot of people say that AI is really a great opportunity and we have seen again the fundamentals around AI to be very very strong now of course shortterm talked about it some uncertainty there's a lot happening discussion around tariff export control microeconomic uncertainties

Fouquet announces the first High-NA EXE:5200 for high-volume manufacturing has shipped, offering 175 wafers per hour.

we have shipped our first EXE 5200 which is the tool that is going to be used in high volume manufacturing. The tool is under installed and as a reminder this will provide our customer with 60% productivity improvement compared to the 5,000. So we're talking about 175 wafer per hour.

Fouquet says the NXE:3800's productivity lets customers, notably in DRAM, replace multipatterning with single-exposure EUV, raising litho intensity.

this tool uh thanks to the higher productivity really allow customer to shift more multiatterning layer to single expose. So this basically allow a customer to reduce complexity, reduce uh yield loss, improve cycle time and we have seen that happening quite a bit uh in the last few months with DM where for the last nodes we really see a shift basically towards more EUV layer

Fouquet expects China to exceed 25% of revenue and still prepares for growth, but warns uncertainty is rising from macro, geopolitics and tariffs.

When we look at China, we expect China revenue to be over 25% which is in line with our backlog going into 2026. uh there the fundamentals of our AI customer remain strong and we are still preparing for growth. However, as we discussed last time, the level of uncertainty is increasing mostly due to macroeconomic NGO politics consideration and that's include of course tariff

Fouquet says AI is the main growth driver for both logic and memory, with customers adding leading-edge logic capacity and investing in HBM and DDR.

artificial intelligence is currently the main driver for growth for both logic and memory. If we look at logic, we expect logic to grow compared to 2024 because our customer are adding capacity in the most advanced node. Uh memory remains very strong because they also our customer are investing in their latest HBM and DDR product.

Fouquet reaffirms progress toward ASML's 2030 targets of €44–60B revenue and 56–60% gross margin.

So we feel that we are making a very good step towards our guidance given at the capital market day November for 2030 with a range of revenue between 44 and 60 billion euro and a gross margin range between 56 and 60%.

Fouquet says AI demand for this year and next has solidified and customers point to growth in both 2025 and 2026.

We still see a lot of strengths in AI. In fact, some of the demand for this year of course, but also for next year has solidified. So that's very encouraging. Now, if we had to that the discussion with our customer points to 2025 and 2026 to be both a growth year as we explained in previous discussion.

Fouquet cites Intel and Samsung data showing High-NA EUV sharply reduces process steps and cycle time, validating its value.

Intel was explaining that they had exposed more than 30,000 wafer on their tool. They also pointed very strongly to the fact that INA could help them simplify their process and they mentioned one layer where they could reduce basically the number of process step from 40 to 10 which of course helps with uh cycle time yield and process complexity. Samsung also on the same topic said that INA could reduce their cycle time in fact by 60%.

Fouquet says NXE:3800 productivity gains are driving EUV single-exposure adoption over multipatterning, raising litho intensity especially in DRAM.

the progress on productivity basically allow us to execute with our customer on cost of technology and as a result we start to see the opportunity to have more EUV V single expose adoption uh of course at the expense of multiatterning. This is great for our customer because it helps with cycle time simplification yield and of course for SML this means that this little intensity especially for DM now is uh continuing to increase

Fouquet warns that tariffs create new uncertainty for GDP and indirectly for ASML's market demand.

I think the one thing I'd like to say which is being shared by many experts, many businesses is that this dynamic is creating a new uncertainty especially when it comes to GDP. So micro level and indirectly of course our potential market demand. So this is a dynamic ethic we have to watch very carefully.

Fouquet expects logic to grow strongly on 2nm ramps while memory stays flat at last year's strong level.

So, we still see logic increasing. I think it's very strong especially because of advanced logic. We've been talking about two nanometer for a long time. This is now happening and customer are ramping their very advanced logic node. For memory, we think memory will remain strong same level as last year

Fouquet says AI remains the market driver with strong demand, putting 2025 revenue between €30B and €35B depending on customer capacity additions and uncertainty.

Uh AI is still the driver of the market, the demand is strong, it remains strong and we see two scenario. If the demand on AI continue to be strong and our customer are capable to add capacity so we have basically opportunity for an upside looking at the upper range of our guidance the 35 billion euro on the other hand we still see some uncertainty with some of our customer that could also you know take us to the lower end of the guidance the 30 billion euro

Fouquet reiterates rising lithography layer counts and a 2030 revenue target of €44–60B with 56–60% gross margin.

we expect the number of lithography layers to continue to increase on all application and to translate that into numbers I think again very consistent to the view we presented in November total revenue for 2030 will be between 44 and 60 billion Euro our gross margin will be somewhere between 56 and 60%

Fouquet believes AI will bring more opportunity to semiconductors and drive more advanced technology to tackle cost and power challenges.

we used to talk about semiconductor everywhere I think since November we start to talk about AI everywhere and we truly believe that AI is going to bring even more opportunity to this semiconductor industry that's the first thing uh the second thing is that AI is going to drive more advanced technology to address some of the challenges on cost on power consumption

Fouquet says the NXE:3800 low-NA EUV will be HVM-ready this year and make up the majority of low-NA shipments.

we are continuing to mature basically the platform with our customer so that the tool can be ready this year to really support high volume manufacturing as you know as well on this tool this will become the majority of for shipment when it comes to Lowa this year

Fouquet says High-NA EUV achieved first customer acceptances with very positive feedback, and talks now focus on timing and volume of HVM insertion.

we got the first two customer acceptance which you know after so many years of development has been a major Milestone the feedback on the Imaging performance from our dram customer logic customer continue to be very very positive they like what they see and the key discussion Now is really when how and in which volume I would say to insert this tool into volume manufacturing

Fouquet says China revenue share will normalize in 2025 to pre-2023 levels after backlog-driven highs.

we are still working on some backlog created in 2022 when our capacity was not big enough to fulfill the O Market 2025 will be a year where we see China going back to a more normal ratio in our business so I think we're going to see again numbers people used to see before 23

Fouquet expects memory to stay strong in 2025 and logic to grow to meet AI demand.

2024 was strong for memory and we remain uh we expect memory to remain strong we expect logic to grow to basically fulfill the demand of AI

Fouquet explains the 2025 revenue range of €30–35B hinges on AI demand strength versus uncertainty among non-AI customers.

if the demand remains strong and our customer are capable to build some capacity we see the opportunity toward the highest part of the range on the other hand there's still quite some uncertainty on the other customer and this also justify the lowest part of the range

Fouquet says AI is clearly driving a market shift, strongly benefiting some customers while others benefit less.

AI is the clear driver I think we started to see that last year in fact at this point we really believe that AI is creating a shift uh in the market and we have seen customer benefiting for it very strongly uh other maybe a bit less so

Fouquet said strong customer demand for productivity upgrades pushed ASML's service and field-option business above guidance and lifted gross margin beyond expectations.

Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said strong demand for productivity upgrades lifted that business above guidance and helped gross margin beat expectations.

Fouquet says supply shortages in advanced logic and memory nodes are growing both in size and duration.

Supply shortages across advanced logic and memory nodes continue to increase in size and in time horizon.

Fouquet says higher-throughput DUV upgrades offer ASML opportunities on value, margin and pricing while also helping capacity.

So this is both an opportunity on value, margin, pricing, it is also, of course, very helpful when it comes to capacity.

Fouquet says customer cleanroom readiness is not a major constraint on ASML's demand, as ASML checks facility readiness before allocating scarce tools.

We do not see our customer clean room being a major factor on our demand.

Fouquet told staff that a new Workplace Experience Index built from survey questions will directly affect senior leaders' pay, including the Board of Management.

In the coming years, it will directly influence the remuneration of senior leaders, including the Board of Management,

Fouquet said ASML's existing capacity plans would not be enough to meet customer demand, as customers discuss orders for 2029 and 2030.

CEO Christophe Fouquet said at the time that existing capacity plans would not be sufficient to meet demand.

Fouquet told shareholders in April that ASML would avoid becoming the chip industry's bottleneck by all possible means.

by all possible means

Fouquet said ASML's planned capacity increases will fall short of customer demand.

Chief executive Christophe Fouquet said the planned capacity increases would not be enough to meet demand.

Fouquet said customer forecasts are driven mainly by expectations for the scale and duration of AI investment.

Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said customer forecasts are being driven mainly by expectations for the size and duration of artificial intelligence investment.

Fouquet says leading customers expect demand to outpace supply through at least 2028, backed by long-term commitments.

Our leading edge high volume customers are sharing very good visibility as a result of the increasing number of long-term commitments they are securing with their customers. This extended visibility has led them to conclude that demand for their product will outpace supply through at least 2028.

Fouquet reads the 12-inch mask initiative as a sign customers expect broader High-NA adoption.

I think the announcement, and the drive of TSMC first on the 12-inch critical mask, is very interesting there. Because the first signal it gives is that, in the mind of the customer, there will be more and more use of High-NA. Because if it was not the case, no one will really bother to go to 12-inch mask on High-NA.